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Friday, September 11, 2015

Past Performance and Future Returns


"Past performance does not predict future returns."

This statement, or something like it appears on all stock broker advertisements.  Just because the stock market, or real estate market, or bond market has gone up six percent a year for the last eight years doesn't mean that this won't be the year that it tumbles twenty percent.  Even more importantly, even intelligent money managers will have years where their investments don't hit as well as in the past.

There is no easy prediction of what the market will do.  We tend to think that whatever happened last week is what will continue to happen for the next several months, but there certainly is no guarantee that that is true.  Those who play the market heavily are as likely to lose a bunch of money as to make a bundle.

There are many other areas of life that are unpredictable.  However as I think about God, about how faithful He has been to order the chaos in my life and bring good out of bad situations, it begs the question:  "Will His past faithfulness continue into the future or, is He like the stock market, sometimes up and sometimes down?"

If there is one thing the Bible makes clear, it is the fact that God does not change.  Theologians call this the Immutability of God, but whatever word you use, one thing is clear, God is dependable.

That is a real blessing, for people change and not always for the better, but God is the same yesterday, today and forever.

No one really knows for sure if the stock market will be up or down next week, but we can be sure of God.  The things he has done in the past are just a little sample of the wonders He will do in the future.  God doesn't have bad days.  He has said "I will never leave you or forsake you," and we can depend on that.

With God, past performance does predict future faithfulness.

That's a blessing we can't fully grasp.

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